The Colorado State University has said that this year’s Atlantic Hurricane Season will be slightly below-average. Researchers say that’s because of the occurrence of El Nino.
Even with these early predictions, the CSU cautioned that “there is considerable uncertainty as to how strong El Niño would be if it does develop”.
The CSU explained that “El Niño patterns tend to increase upper-level westerly winds across the Caribbean into the tropical Atlantic. The increased upper-level winds result in vertical wind shear, which can tear apart hurricanes as they try to form,”
Adding “When waters in the eastern and central tropical and subtropical Atlantic are warmer than normal, this tends to force a weaker subtropical high and associated weaker winds blowing across the tropical Atlantic. These conditions lead to warmer waters in the tropical Atlantic for the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season”.
According to the CSU, “the anomalously warm eastern and central tropical and subtropical Atlantic favour an above-normal season. Given the conflicting signals between a potentially robust El Niño and an anomalously warm tropical and subtropical Atlantic, the team stresses that there is more uncertainty than normal with this outlook.”
CSU’s forecast aligns with one issued recently by US private forecaster AccuWeather and the 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season will run from June 1 to November 30.