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Ian Durant
Caribbean economies including Antigua and Barbuda are on the rebound, according to Ian Durant, the Director of Economics at the Caribbean Development Bank
During the CDB’s Annual News Conference held on February 20, 2024, Durant, expressed his optimism for the majority of Caribbean economies, which are currently on a positive trajectory.
Durant projected an average growth rate of 8.6% for the CDB’s 19 Borrowing Member Countries in 2024, driven primarily by increased oil production in Guyana and the continued expansion of the tourism industry.
However, excluding Guyana, the growth projection falls to 2.3%, which is a moderation from the estimated growth of 2.5% in 2023, reflecting the broader trends of slowing, below-average global growth and the ongoing normalization of economic conditions in the Caribbean.
Durant also highlighted the mostly favorable performance of the Bank’s 19 Borrowing Members in 2023, with the exception of Haiti, which continued to experience instability and high inflation.
He projected that the positive trajectory for 18 of the Bank’s 19 clients is anticipated to continue into 2024. Despite the challenging external environment, Caribbean economies continued to recover from the COVID-19 shock, with an average growth rate of 6.7% in 2023.
The tourism industry remained a key driver of regional economic performance, with service-exporting economies growing at an average of 2.4%.
Furthermore, 11 countries had exceeded pre-pandemic output levels by the end of 2023.
Durant warned that the projections are susceptible to various risks, such as sluggish global growth, persistent high inflation, challenges linked to climate change, and natural disasters, which can all undermine economic performance.
He recommended several requisites for achieving resilient prosperity in the region, including adequate, climate-resilient social and economic infrastructure, improving the institutional frameworks within which businesses operate, especially through digitalization and the adoption of artificial intelligence, expanding the human resource base and reducing skills gaps, enabling greater sustainable energy to boost energy security and reduce energy costs, improving logistics quality to facilitate intra-regional trade, and enhancing food security by developing regional value chains and reducing import dependence.
Durant also advised governments that fiscal policy should balance securing fiscal sustainability and facilitating growth and development.
Making the necessary investments in pursuit of resilient prosperity will require greater access to adequate and affordable financing to not compromise debt sustainability efforts.
He added that raising potential output and building economic resilience over the medium to long term will require reducing high export concentration by raising competitiveness through increased productivity and lower production costs.
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