According to the latest Caribbean Climate Outlook Newsletter released by the Barbados-based Caribbean Climate Outlook Forum (CariCOF), 2024 is expected to be a year of extreme climate conditions in the Caribbean.

The report states that the region is likely to experience a surge in heat waves and a start to an intense wet season, as a result of a waning El Niño event in the Pacific and record-warm Tropical North Atlantic temperatures.

The report further states that shower intensity and frequency are predicted to rise sharply, resulting in a high potential for flooding, flash floods, cascading hazards, and associated impacts in most places, except Aruba, Bonnaire, and Curacao (ABC Islands).

However, the report also highlights the uncertainty of how frequently dry, dust-laden Saharan air will affect the Caribbean.

If this happens frequently, the region will experience erratic shower activity, interspersed with frequent dry spells, leading to record-breaking heat, wildfire potential, and further buildup of ongoing drought.

CariCOF warns that the potential for flooding, flash floods, and cascading impacts arising from runoff during intense rainfall events will be high, particularly in mountainous areas and in the Guianas.

The report also highlights that as of March 1, 2024, moderate (or worse) short-term drought has already developed in French Guiana, Grenada, Guyana, Martinique, southwest Puerto Rico, Suriname, and Tobago.

Additionally, long-term drought has developed in southern Belize, northern Cuba, Dominica, Grenada, southern Puerto Rico, St Vincent, eastern and northern Suriname, and Trinidad and Tobago.

CariCOF further warns that by the end of May 2024, long-term drought, which is of immediate concern, is expected to develop in southern French Guiana, southwest Belize, Grand Cayman, parts of Central Cuba, central and northern French Guiana, northern Guyana, southwest Puerto Rico, Suriname, and might possibly continue in ABC islands, northern Belize, Central Cuba, Dominica, Jamaica, Trinidad and Tobago.