IMF Forecasts Mixed Economic Outlook for Antigua and Barbuda
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has released its Western Hemisphere regional outlook report, projecting a moderation in Antigua and Barbuda’s economic growth alongside improving inflation and debt metrics for 2025.
Growth Slowdown
The report, released yesterday, forecasts:
- Economic growth to slow to 3.5% in 2025
- Down from 5.8% projected for 2024
- Places Antigua and Barbuda behind regional peers:
- St Kitts and Nevis (4.3%)
- Dominica (4.2%)
- St Vincent and the Grenadines (4%)
- Grenada (3.9%)
- Guyana leads with 14.4%
Positive Economic Indicators
Despite slowing growth, several positive trends emerge:
- Inflation expected to drop significantly:
- From 5.4% in 2024
- To 2% in 2025
- Trade deficit improvement:
- 10.5% of GDP in 2024
- Reducing to 9.8% in 2025
- Primary surplus:
- 0.6% in 2024
- Rising to 0.7% in 2025
Debt Management Success
Notable progress in debt reduction:
- Debt-to-GDP ratio declining:
- 76.8% in 2023
- Projected 67.3% by 2025
- Government spending to increase slightly:
- 16.8% of GDP in 2024
- Rising to 17% in 2025
Regional Climate Challenges
The IMF highlighted significant climate-related concerns:
- Caribbean economies lose average 2.5% of GDP annually due to climate events
- Potential losses up to 25% per decade
- IMF Deputy Director Anna Corbacho emphasized need for:
- Better mitigation strategies
- Adaptation in public investment
- Green energy transition
Tourism Impact
The report, titled “Rebalancing Policies and Pressing on with Reforms,” attributes much of the regional economic slowdown to an expected “deceleration in tourism,” affecting various Caribbean economies.
The IMF’s projections present a complex picture for Antigua and Barbuda’s economy, balancing slower growth against improvements in inflation and debt metrics, while highlighting the ongoing challenges posed by climate change to the Caribbean region.
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