Gaza ceasefire agreement under serious threat of collapse

by Mick the Ram

There are serious fears that the tinderbox situation in Gaza is about to reignite with a very real likelihood that the current ceasefire will be shut-down at the weekend and fighting will resume.

Hamas announced in recent days that their intention is to delay the release of more hostages after accusing Israel of violating the existing deal.

That message was met with a direct intervention from Donald Trump who fuelled the position by saying the ceasefire should be cancelled if all remaining Israeli hostages are not returned by noon on Saturday 15 February and if it does not happen then in his words: “All hell is going to break out”.

This communication came a matter of hours after the US President had said openly that Palestinians would NOT have the right to return under his controversial plan to take ownership of Gaza.

That was in total contradiction of remarks made by his administration who said people would be relocated only on a temporarily basis.

Should the hostages not be returned by the stated deadline this weekend Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared that “the ceasefire will be terminated”.

As a result Israel’s Defence Minister confirmed that instructions have been passed for the IDF to prepare at the “highest level of alert”.

Warning could backfire

Hamas had inferred that the pending postponement of the agreed hostage release was intended as a “warning message” to Israel, who the group insisted had “repeatedly violated the terms of the ceasefire deal”.

They accused the Israelis of preventing the return of displaced Palestinians to the north of the Gaza Strip, blocking the planned influx of humanitarian aid and continuing to open fire on them.

In their statement they suggested that they were “giving mediators ample time to pressure the occupation [Israel] into fulfilling its obligations”, adding that “the door remains open” for the next scheduled releases to go ahead on 15 February.

Turning up the pressure

However, the tables were quickly turned by Mr Trump who told reporters that it would be “appropriate” to abandon the ceasefire unless all hostages are freed by midday Saturday: “I would say, cancel it and all bets are off and let hell break out”.

He qualified that statement by saying: “I’m speaking for myself. Israel can override it,” before going on to dismiss the policy of releasing those being held in “dribs and drabs”, instead insisting that every single one of the hostages (alive or dead) needs to be handed over in the next release.  

Doubts raised on hostages health

After seeing the condition of the last few people let out, the president then questioned what sort of state those that remain captive will be in.

“Who knows? Are they alive? Are they not alive? based on what I saw over the last two days, they’re not going to be alive for long.” He then suggested that Hamas had probably released the healthiest first.

Intent on taking control of Gaza

Mr Trump also elaborated on his seemingly off-the-cuff remark on how most Palestinians should leave while the Gaza Strip is rebuilt, before being taken over and run by the US.

This has caused a real stir and he doubled down on what seems to be a definite plan of his that has set alarm bells ringing all across the middle east.

Hamas may feel that they no longer have any incentive to release the remaining hostages, which is extremely worrying for the families of those still being held.

Israel on verge of return to fighting

Nevertheless, the Israeli PM Mr Netanyahu wholly backed Mr Trump’s “revolutionary vision for Gaza’s future” as well as a return to fighting should Hamas hold firm with their threat to withhold releases.

After a “thorough and in-depth” meeting with his security cabinet he released a statement: “The decision passed unanimously is that if our hostages are not returned by Saturday afternoon the ceasefire will be terminated, and the IDF will return to intense fighting until Hamas is finally defeated”.

Will the 6th swap happen?

Much of Gaza lies in ruins since the beginning of a war which has seen tens of thousands killed.

So far there has been five swaps actioned, with a total of 21 hostages and more than 730 Palestinian prisoners released, in varying states of health.