A Surprisingly Wet Start to April

By Dale C. S. Destin – Published 8 April 2025 |

April has gotten off to a notably wet start across Antigua and Barbuda, particularly around the V. C. Bird International Airport (VCBIA). In just the first seven days, the area recorded 39.5 mm (1.56 in) of rainfall—making it the sixth-wettest start to April since records began in 1960. The last time the first week of April was wetter was in 2000, with 94.0 mm (3.70 in), while the wettest on record remains April 1–7, 1986, with a remarkable 115.9 mm (4.56 in).

With more than three weeks left in the month, rainfall at VCBIA has already reached 60% of the April average total of 65.2 mm (2.62 inches). Of the 65.2 mm, April 1-7 usually contributes only 10 mm (0.40 in) or just over 15%. Elsewhere across the country, totals for the first week range from 20 to 40 mm (0.79 to 1.57 in).

April was previously given a 40% chance of below-normal rainfall, a 30% chance of near-normal, and only a 30% chance of being wetter than usual. However, this forecast may now need to be revisited in light of the wet start.

Climatologically, April is the fifth driest month of the year—or the eighth wettest, depending on how you look at it. It’s typically wetter than January, February, March, and June. Interestingly, it’s the only month that is statistically getting wetter over time.

So far in 2025, rainfall has been running above normal across Antigua and Barbuda. From January to March, the country received between 152.4 and 228.6 mm (6.0 to 9.0 in) of rain, averaging a surplus of 52.6 mm (2.07 in). It’s the third-wettest first quarter since 2008 and ranks as the 20th wettest on record, going back to 1928.

Looking ahead, the latest climate outlook from the Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Service (ABMS) shows low confidence in rainfall for the next six months falling into any particular category—below, near, or above normal. This uncertainty is likely linked to the forecast return of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral conditions in the coming months.