The European Commission is escalating its pressure on Caribbean citizenship-by-investment (CBI) programmes, warning that their operation alone could now justify suspending Schengen visa-free access for participating states. This shift places Antigua and Barbuda squarely in the spotlight.

In its 8th annual Visa Suspension Mechanism report, the Commission abandons its long-held demand for “genuine links” and instead declares CBI schemes run by visa-exempt countries to be an inherent security risk.

“The operation of such programmes constitutes, in itself, a ground for suspending the visa-free status of third countries,” the report states.

This marks a significant hardening of EU policy and suggests that countries—even those making major reforms, could face punitive action.

Antigua and Barbuda Named Among High-Risk Jurisdictions
Antigua and Barbuda, Dominica, Grenada, Saint Kitts and Nevis, and Saint Lucia are again singled out for operating “large-scale” programmes, which are viewed as a “significant and ongoing challenge” to EU border security.

Across these five nations, over 100,000 citizenships have been granted through investment channels, with strong market demand continuing:
•⁠ ⁠13,113 applications processed in 2023
•⁠ ⁠10,573 in 2024

Antigua and Barbuda’s programme has one of the lowest rejection rates — just 1.7% — a point the EU highlights as evidence that screening remains insufficiently stringent despite enhancements made in recent years.

Reforms Recognised — But “Not Enough”
Regional governments — including Antigua and Barbuda — have worked to strengthen compliance, agreeing to:
•⁠ ⁠A harmonised minimum investment threshold of US $200,000
•⁠ ⁠Stronger due diligence through international firms
•⁠ ⁠Shared intelligence and cross-border security cooperation

Yet Brussels says these improvements do not remove the perceived threat. Instead, it now insists heightened due diligence must continue “pending the discontinuation” of CBI schemes altogether, signalling that total shutdown, not regulation, is the long-term objective.

Visa-Free Suspension Now a Real Possibility
Under strengthened rules, the EU can launch a graduated process leading to suspension if expectations are not met “without delay.”

The Commission cites Georgia as an example of phased sanctions — with diplomatic visa-free access already being removed there by year-end — warning that a similar step-by-step model could soon apply to the Caribbean.

Wider Ramifications for Antigua and Barbuda
CBI revenues remain a critical economic pillar for Antigua and Barbuda, supporting:
•⁠ ⁠Housing and public infrastructure
•⁠ ⁠Debt management
•⁠ ⁠Post-COVID fiscal recovery
•⁠ ⁠Climate resilience projects

Any move to suspend Schengen visa-free entry — a major selling point of the programme — could sharply impact investor demand and public finances.

Europe Signals a Final Destination: End of CBI Altogether
The report also reaffirms that EU membership or deeper integration are not possible for countries that maintain investor citizenship models. That position was cemented earlier this year when the European Court of Justice ruled Malta’s investment-citizenship scheme unlawful under EU principles of nationality.

What Comes Next?
While no deadlines have been set, the Commission makes clear that pressure will intensify. Caribbean governments, including Antigua and Barbuda, may soon face a defining policy choice:
Continue CBI programmes and risk losing Europe’s visa-free privilege, or dismantle the schemes and absorb the economic fallout.

For now, regional leaders are expected to push back, arguing that their programmes provide world-class due diligence and vital development funds.

But with Brussels signalling the end of the road for citizenship-for-investment, a decisive geopolitical showdown may be looming for Antigua and Barbuda and its OECS neighbours.