A fierce political backlash over U.S. visa sanctions has sparked explosive debate in the region, but a leading Caribbean analyst says fears that Trinidad and Tobago is preparing to abandon CARICOM are nothing more than political theatrics.

Regional political analyst and pollster Peter Wickham is dismissing mounting speculation that Trinidad and Tobago could sever ties with CARICOM, describing the notion as “misplaced, unrealistic, and economically irrational.”

The alarm was triggered by sharply-worded statements from Trinidad and Tobago’s Prime Minister Kamla Persad-Bissessar, who condemned CARICOM as “not a reliable partner” after the U.S. imposed visa restrictions on Antigua and Barbuda and Dominica, two member states of the regional bloc.

Trinidad and Tobago’s Prime Minister Kamla Persad-Bissessar

Persad-Bissessar accused CARICOM of distancing itself from Washington while “lending support to the Maduro narco-government… headed by a dictator,” claiming the grouping had “lost its way.”

Her rhetoric ignited fears of a political earthquake in Caribbean integration—one that could see the region’s second-largest economy exit the 15-member community.

But Wickham, speaking with Antigua.news, says the warnings of withdrawal are “political noise amplified beyond proportion.”

You recall that some time ago, Jamaica asked itself a similar situation. They had a commission. They looked into it. They came to the conclusion that it was unwise to leave. My sense is that in the case of Trinidad, it’s even more unwise to leave because Trinidad and Tobago benefits significantly from the trade it receives in CARICOM,” he said.

Wickham says Persad-Bissessar’s comments reflect the pressures of managing diplomatic tensions with the United States — not a coordinated shift in foreign policy.

“The noise that you’re hearing from her is essentially just that. And I think it reflects her anxiety in terms of justifying the Trump policy or the pro-Trump policy….”, he said.

While Wickham expects Trinidad to continue expressing displeasure with the bloc’s foreign-policy choices, he insists that economic self-interest, and geopolitical reality, will ultimately anchor the country firmly within CARICOM.

“Leaving the community,” says “would be a self-inflicted wound no serious government could defend.”

For now, the noise may continue. But Wickham believes that when the theatrics fade, cooler heads, and the bottom line, will prevail.