IMF: Antigua and Barbuda’s Growth Outlook Strong but Vulnerabilities Remain

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected a continued expansion of Antigua and Barbuda’s economy in 2026 while urging vigilance against global and domestic risks that could derail progress.

According to the IMF’s 2026 Article IV Staff Concluding Statement, Antigua and Barbuda’s economic recovery gained traction in 2025 on the back of rebounding construction activity and easing inflationary pressures following strong visitor arrival figures. Growth for 2024 was estimated at about 2.5 percent, with 2025 output projected to reach around 3 percent, reflecting a steady, albeit modest expansion as the post-pandemic rebound stabilises.

The IMF now expects real GDP growth near 2½ – 2.8 percent in 2026, anchored by tourism performance and strategic investments. Staff noted that hosting the upcoming Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting (CHOGM) 2026, scheduled in St. John’s from 1 to 4 November, alongside expanded hotel and port facilities, is likely to bolster arrivals and economic activity.

While headline growth is seen as stable, the IMF highlighted several structural and external risks: ongoing global uncertainty, geopolitical fragmentation, commodity price volatility and the potential for reduced inflows from citizenship-by-investment programmes following recent U.S. travel policy changes. Vulnerabilities from extreme weather events and construction sector capacity constraints were also cited.

On inflation, the IMF observed significant moderation, from elevated levels in 2024 to subdued price pressures approaching regional averages, reflecting declines in transport and other key categories.

The balance of payments picture offers cautious optimism. The current account deficit sizable in recent years is forecast to narrow gradually, while the public debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to continue its long-term decline toward the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union’s 60 percent benchmark, although arrears and financing needs remain challenges.

Prime Minister and Finance Minister Gaston Browne welcomed the IMF’s assessment, calling it validation of the government’s stewardship of the economy and resilience in the face of global headwinds.

The IMF’s concluding statement follows a month-long mission in January and will be finalised in a staff report to the IMF Executive Board in the coming weeks.