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It’s almost a month into the 2024 Hurricane Season and the predictions continue to call for an active or above-normal season with it being more likely than not a well above normal or a super hyperactive one.
Director of the Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Services Dale Destin said the updated prediction is for 24 named storms, 11 hurricanes, 5 major hurricanes and an accumulated cyclone energy index
“Or we could tell you that the range of named storms will be 18 to 30 in terms of hurricanes 7 to 15 in terms of major hurricanes. The numbers are trending down a little bit good news for us bit notwithstanding there are still above the threshold level of an above normal season which is to say an active season possible a super active season,” Destin told state media on Monday.
He added in his personal blog on 268 weather.com that the ACE has dropped from 233 in April to 218 in May and now 212 in the June forecast. This is a modest 9% reduction in forecast activity from April to June.
“The primary drivers behind 268Weather’s forecast for an above-normal hurricane season remain the expected persistently warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the tropical North Atlantic (TNA) and cooler-than-normal SSTs in the eastern Equatorial Pacific, indicative of La Niña conditions.
“These factors create ideal conditions for a highly active hurricane season. However, uncertainties exist due to the unpredictable intensity and frequency of Saharan dust, which can inhibit hurricane formation but cannot be forecast beyond a few days.”
Additionally, the timing and intensity of La Niña remain uncertain; a late and weak La Niña would result in less hurricane activity, which would be welcomed.
According to other forecasts issued in May-June, the consensus is for an ACE of 202, 23 named storms, 11 hurricanes and 5 major hurricanes, an active/above-normal season.
Based on the standard climate period of 1991-2020, a typical season has 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, 3 major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) and an ACE of 123.
Destin said the 268Weather forecast is intended to provide the best estimate of activity in the Atlantic during the season and is not an exact measure; it’s a guide, not gospel.
He said the forecast will be updated around the 15th of each month until August. The next update will be issued around July 15.
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