By Kieron Murdoch | Opinion Contributor

We have already expressed our belief that the Labour Party stands a better chance of winning the upcoming by-election in St. Peter. It is a historically red constituency and has only not been so when its most recent longtime Labour MP went independent. But we find ourselves asking what shape both parties will be in following this by-election and starting the new year.

The Antigua and Barbuda Labour Party (ABLP) appears to be enjoying greater political fortunes due largely to the internal troubles of the United Progressive Party (UPP) which sent quite a few of its members and key functionaries walking in 2024. The UPP meanwhile appears to be stabilising somewhat from what was a period of heightened chaos that began with the departure of MP Anthony Smith from the party.

If the ABLP wins in St. Peter then they will have increased their majority by two votes without having had to call a general election. Those two votes would be Anthony Smith, who sits as an independent but clearly supports the Labour government in the House as would be expected since being appointed as a Minister of Cabinet. The second will be Rawdon Turner, the ABLP St. Peter candidate in the by-election caused by the death of Asot Michael.

A loss for the UPP in St. Peter may not be seen as meaning much. After all, Labour has been winning there consistently since the 1970s. Somehow, it does not appear that the constituency is one in which the party has a lot of interest. When it was apparent that Michael was at odds with the ABLP, it seemed that the UPP were pleased not to fight him too seriously, and let him deny Labour a seat. In the last election, there was largely seen as Labour infighting.

But it points to a larger problem for the UPP which is whether and how it can flip any of four key seats: St. Peter, St. John’s City West, St. Phillip’s North and St. John’s City South. These seats have remained red even when there was a massive swing against the Labour Party in 2004. They have remained red since. Some have been red for decades going back.

The only seat among the four in which the gap seems to have narrowed significantly was in St. Phillip’s North, where the ageing MP Sir Robin Yearwood while winning by a healthy margin, had the considerable gap he had enjoyed in previous elections closed. Now that there is a new Labour candidate there, it leaves us to question the opposition’s chances against someone with more vitality.

If the UPP does not have a strategy for these four seats, then they are running in 10 constituencies as opposed to 16. We say 16, and not 17 because they do not run a candidate in Barbuda, instead leaving their ally, the BPM, the take on the Labour Party there. It means that in any general election, the Labour appears to maintain a 4-seat headstart.

As unlikely, as it is, a loss for the Labour Party in St. Peter would be catastrophic. It would indicate the willingness of a traditionally red electorate to side against the party even when Michael’s patronage is no longer a factor swaying them. It would leave Gaston Browne in a poor position and would reignite questions in his party about how long he can remain the right man for the job, and if his overall popularity can recover from its slump in January 2023. As we mentioned, however, we do not see a Labour loss as likely.

A loss for the UPP is unlikely to jeopardize the position of its current leadership any more than any of its other recent actions have in the past year. The Political Leader and Leader of the Opposition, Jamale Pringle MP will likely have to lose a general election before there is a broad revolt or rethink of the party’s direction by the members who have empowered and supported him. If the UPP pulls off a win, however, it will be a historic triumph which will serve to silence MP Pringle’s critics.

About the writer:

Kieron Murdoch is an opinion contributor at antigua.news. He worked as a journalist and later as a radio presenter in Antigua and Barbuda for eight years, covering politics and governance especially. If you have an opinion on the issues raised in this editorial and you would like to submit a response by email to be considered for publication, please email staff@antigua.news.