The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has revised its prediction for the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season.
Today, they announced that the season will likely be more active than expected.
This is due to the current ocean and atmospheric conditions, which include abnormally high Atlantic Sea surface temperatures.
This is counterbalancing the usually limiting atmospheric conditions associated with the ongoing El Nino event.
The likelihood of an above-normal hurricane season has increased to 60%, up from the previous prediction of 30%.
The chance of near-normal activity has decreased to 25%, while there is now a 15% chance of a below-normal season.
NOAA’s updated outlook for the entire six-month season predicts 14 to 21 named storms, of which 6 to 11 could become hurricanes, including 2 to 5 major hurricanes.
The Atlantic basin has already experienced an active start to the season with five storms that have reached at least tropical storm strength, including one hurricane.
Matthew Rosencrans, lead hurricane season forecaster with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Centre, explained that the ongoing El Nino and the warm phase of the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation, including record-warm Atlantic Sea surface temperatures, are expected to influence the 2023 Atlantic hurricane activity.
He urged everyone to prepare for the continuing season.