268Weather Forecasts a Potentially Super-Hyperactive 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season
By Dale C. S. Destin – Published 16 April 2025 |
Brace for another potentially active and busy hurricane season. According to the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast by 268Weather, the upcoming season is projected to be above normal, with the possibility of it being well above normal or super hyperactive. This forecast is based on data up to April 14 and spans the full hurricane season—June through November, plus May.
Super-Hyperactive Season Ahead?
The forecast predicts:
- 20 named storms (vs the average: 14)
- 10 hurricanes (vs the average: 7)
- 5 major hurricanes (vs the average: 3)
- Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 195 (vs the average: 123)
There is a 70% confidence that the season will fall within the following ranges:
- 15 to 27 named storms
- 6 to 14 hurricanes
- 3 to 7 major hurricanes
- 116 to 302 ACE
What’s even more striking is the 52% chance that the season will be super hyperactive, with ACE exceeding 223, placing it in the top 10 percentile of seasons on record from 1991–2020.
What’s Fueling This Forecast?
The main driver behind this above-normal forecast is the expectation of warm-neutral sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the tropical North Atlantic (TNA). These warmer waters typically provide more energy for tropical storms to form and strengthen.
However, there is notable uncertainty due to:
- the TNA possibly hovering near normal levels;
- ENSO-neutral conditions expected to prevail (i.e., no El Niño or La Niña dominance) and
- the notorious “spring predictability barrier”, which limits model accuracy when forecasting ENSO conditions this time of year.
Despite this, the outlook leans heavily toward an active and busy season, especially during the August to October peak.
Probability Breakdown
Based on the ACE metric:
- 82% chance of an above-normal season
- 14% chance of a near-normal season
- 4% chance of a below-normal season
There are also significant probabilities for other key metrics:
- 55% chance of more than 19 named storms
- 43% chance of more than 11 hurricanes
- 42% chance of more than 6 major hurricanes
These stats show just how elevated the risks are for the season ahead. To put this into perspective, fewer than a dozen seasons in history have surpassed these high thresholds.
A typical season, based on the new standard climate period 1991-2020, has 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, 3 major hurricanes and an ACE of 123. Major hurricanes are those with sustained wind speeds of at least 178 km/h or 111 miles per hour (e.g., Category 3 or higher), according to the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale
Final Thoughts
With a high likelihood of an active to super-hyperactive season, preparedness is key. Even one storm can make a season memorable, especially for small islands like Antigua and Barbuda and other vulnerable parts of the Caribbean. As the forecast becomes more refined in the coming weeks, all eyes should remain on the evolving conditions across the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans.
This forecast will be updated monthly around the 15th of each month until August. The first update will be issued around May 15. The Atlantic hurricane season officially begins on June 1 and concludes on November 30; however, it is not unusual for preseason tropical cyclones to form–be prepared!
Please share this blog if you found it useful. Stay tuned to @268Weather on Twitter, Facebook, Instagram and WhatsApp and other official sources for updates as we move closer to the season’s start.
This story was first published by Antigua News on : antigua.news/2025/04/16/268weather-forecasts-a-potentially-super-hyperactive-2025-atlantic-hurricane-season. © 2025 Antigua News. Republication without permission is not allowed.
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Stone April 16, 2025, 12:05 PM
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