by Mick the Ram

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has described Vladimir Putin’s response to the 30-day ceasefire plan as typically “manipulative” and is effectively a “no” dressed up as a “yes”.

The Russian President said he welcomed Washington’s proposals but raised questions and attached conditions that Mr Zelenskyy pointed out made it clear that he was “preparing a rejection”.

Putin was demanding that Ukrainian soldiers still fighting in the Kursk enclave immediately surrender, plus he suggested that they stop receiving weapons and mobilising men into its army during any pause in fighting.

He also hinted once again that the underlying causes of the war must be addressed, none of which will ever be acceptable to the Ukrainians.

Earlier in the week Ukraine accepted terms for the temporary ceasefire which were thrashed out in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, after crunch talks with American representatives, which crucially included a commitment that the US would renew intelligence and “security support” which had been removed in the war-torn country.  

Ceasefire agreement seemed on course

There had been some tempered optimism earlier in the week when Mr Zelenskyy’s chief of staff, Andriy Yermak, met with the US secretary of state, Marco Rubio. The Ukrainian had proposed three key points, namely: silence in the skies ending missile and drone strikes, silence at sea allowing safe transportation of shipping goods and the release of prisoners of war and detainees – both military and civilian.

After eight hours of productive discussions they were able to release a joint statement, the encouraging content of which, in essence, explained that Ukraine had expressed its readiness to accept the US proposal to enact an immediate, interim 30-day ceasefire, which could be extended by mutual agreement of all the parties.

The US for their part, agreed to lift its pause on intelligence sharing and “security assistance” but crucially, it also said it was subject to “acceptance and concurrent implementation” by the Russian Federation.  

Seemingly unwilling to concede on anything

Putin carefully and in his usual fashion, made some positive noises (for the Americans benefit), saying that he agrees with the idea of a ceasefire in Ukraine, but then raised his long list of concerns that more or less dismissed the proposed terms put forward and hinted that he will look to influence Mr Trump, who he appears to have “on side”.

“We need to negotiate with our American colleagues and partners,” he said. He made his point that the temporary ceasefire will be good for the Ukrainian, especially in the western Kursk region, and added menacingly: “There are two options for Ukrainians in Kursk – surrender or die.”

He then suggested that the 30 days would enable Ukraine to mobilise, rearm and be able to train more people. He also questioned how it would be controlled over an area of more than 2,000km? Reasonable questions on the face of it, but all actually answered in the proposal, but obviously not to Russia’s liking.

Reluctant peacemaker?

Ukraine is looking for a two-stage process: a quick ceasefire and then talks about a longer-term settlement. The Russians however, say that it is impossible to separate the two processes and all the issues should be decided in a single deal.

Mr Zelenskyy is hoping to put pressure on the Kremlin, painting it as a reluctant peacemaker who is simply playing for time.

Manipulating all parties

President Zelenskyy responded to Putin’s comments by insisting that the Russian leader had set so many pre-conditions “that nothing will work out at all”.

He called it all “very predictable and very manipulative”, pointing out that it is a common tactic, whereby he doesn’t say “no” directly, but he does it in such a way that he manages to delay everything to his own advantage and makes normal solutions totally impossible.

Refusal in disguise

Washington had called for Russia to accept a ceasefire without preconditions and the Ukrainian leader highlighted that his country did not set conditions that complicated anything, and maintained that the Russians were basically “preparing a refusal”.

He claimed that Putin was “afraid to say directly to President Trump that he wants to continue this war” and was in fact “framing the idea of a ceasefire with such preconditions that nothing will work out at all, or for as long as possible”.

Quick result seems unlikely

This does present a potential problem for Mr Trump as he has made it clear he wants a quick result, ending the fighting in days, but it is abundantly clear that Putin is having none of that.

The US President put the best spin on his response, saying he’d issued a “very promising statement, but it wasn’t complete”, which was a remarkably diplomatic way of reading the situation.

“Playing” a dangerous game

It certainly seems that Putin is playing to type and is in effect playing Mr Trump. He is making many of the right noises, but is in actual fact conceding nothing and buying time to pursue his strategic goals – which he is unlikely to shift simply by being asked – which include removing the existence of a democratic government in Kyiv.

He will not want to embarrass, alienate, or anger the US and even called Trump’s proposal “great and correct” and supported it in principle, but at the same time demonstrated absolutely no sign of any willingness to a compromise.

Putin will be quietly confident of being able to manipulate Donald Trump, who currently continues to be taken in by all of the lines that the Russian premier feeds him.

Zelenskyy in almost impossible position

For Kyiv these are desperate times, as it is caught between the two leaders individual agendas. Putin wants Ukraine to effectively disappear from the map, whilst Mr Trump wants the country to give up its fight for which he continues to say “Russia holds all the cards”.

Ukraine’s best hope is that the penny finally drops with the American administration and Mr Trump loses his patience with Putin and commits to sanctions of a nature that will force his retreat, but that does seem an enormously unlikely scenario as things stand.