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By Dale C. S. Destin
Antigua experienced a notably wet April, recording 127.5 mm (5.02 in) of rainfall—66% more than the long-term April average of 77.0 mm (3.03 in). This makes April 2025 the wettest since 2013 and among the top 10 wettest Aprils on record for many areas across the island. This level of rainfall is especially significant during what is climatologically the driest part of the year.
The wet April capped off a generally damp start to the month and 2025. For the year to date (January through April), Antigua has accumulated rainfall amounts that place it as the 10th wettest January-April period on record, and the wettest since 2010.
These above-normal rainfall totals are particularly striking given that the long-term forecast for 2025 offers no clear indication of what lies ahead. As noted in the Early 2025 Rainfall Forecast, there’s currently no dominant climate driver—such as El Niño or La Niña—to steer the year’s rainfall decisively. With the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in a neutral phase and Tropical North Atlantic Sea surface temperatures cooling, the forecast remains a toss-up:
- 33% chance of above-normal rainfall
- 34% chance of near-normal rainfall
- 33% chance of below-normal rainfall
This means we’re facing a classic “equal chances” forecast—a high degree of uncertainty that makes it essential to prepare for any possibility, from drought to flooding.
A Look Back and a Look Ahead
The strong start to the year follows an already unusual pattern set in 2024, a year remembered for a record-wet February. Despite ranking among the top 20 wettest years, 2024 still ended in flash drought, reinforcing just how quickly things can change in our region.
So far in 2025, the dry season (January–June) has been wetter than usual. January to March delivered 216.4 mm (8.52 in) of rain—ranking in the top 20 values on record for that period. And with the best estimate for total dry season rainfall at 408.9 mm (16.1 in) (close to the average of 16.14 inches), we may yet end the dry season in surplus. However, Potworks Dam remains near dry, underscoring the need for continued water conservation.
Potworks Dam on 2 May 2025, with barely any of the billion gallons it holds when full. Picture courtesy Ms Karen Corbin of the Humane Society
Regional Context
Across the wider Caribbean, rainfall has been near average so far this year. However, the outlook for the rest of the year suggests that below or near-normal rainfall is likely for many parts of the region.
What This Means for You
While we celebrate the rainfall relief brought by a wet April, uncertainty rules the road ahead. The climate models do not provide strong guidance, meaning we must plan for all scenarios. Whether the rest of the year turns out to be dry, wet, or somewhere in between, resilience and preparation remain our best defenses. That includes:
- Updating water conservation plans
- Ensuring proper drainage and flood mitigation
- Being aware of agricultural impacts
- Keeping up with monthly rainfall updates
Regardless of how the rains unfold, every drop counts. Use water wisely, prepare for weather extremes, and stay connected for the latest updates.
They have had many upon many opportunities to service that dam. Widen it make it deeper, what ever, and there were all sorts of reasons given why it was never done. They could have even built another dam. They chose RO plants instead which they can never get to work right,or whatever.. By the way what has become of Collins Dam???
We welcome the rain but if it was the wettest month it certainly does not reflect that in the attached picture
I mean if you watch the table you’ll see….. “wettest April since 2013” what the graph from 2013 to 2025
Lol. Wettest month and APUA say that they dont have water much. Its just madness
If they cared about giving us water they will fix the necessities to store the water. I’ve had all my tanks filled. APUA don’t care…..
And potworks dam still dried