Atlantic Hurricane Season Still Projected to Be Above Normal

Climatologist Dale Destin continues to forecast an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season for 2025, with the possibility that it could become exceptionally active, ranking in the top 10% of seasons since 1991 based on Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE).

This forecast spans the entire hurricane season—June to November—and is based on data available through July 20, 2025, including tropical storms Andrea, Barry, and Chantal.

The forecast indicates a 77% chance of an above-normal season, an 18% chance of a near-normal season, and a 5% chance of a below-normal season. There is also a notable 43% chance of a super-hyperactive season, which would place 2025 among the most active hurricane seasons on record.

Confidence ranges suggest we could see 16 to 27 named storms, 6 to 13 hurricanes, and 3 to 7 major hurricanes, with an ACE range of 104 to 271.

These numbers are significantly above the long-term averages from 1991 to 2020.

Destin plans to issue its final monthly forecast update around mid-August 2025. Key takeaways include the expectation of above-to-well-above-normal activity, particularly during the peak months of August to October, and continued uncertainty due to ENSO and Atlantic sea surface temperature trends.