Antigua and Barbuda face a relatively low risk from newly formed Tropical Storm Jerry, according to local forecaster Dale Destin, though residents should remain vigilant as the storm approaches the region later this week.

“Based on the initial information the news is still relatively good,” Destin said Tuesday, providing probability assessments for the twin-island nation.

For Barbuda, Destin reported a 47% chance of storm-force winds reaching the island and a 10% chance of hurricane-force winds. Antigua faces lower probabilities, with a 22% chance of storm-force winds and just a 1% chance of hurricane-force winds.

“There will be changes, let’s hope they will be good for us,” Destin added.

The National Hurricane Center confirmed that Tropical Storm Jerry formed over the central Atlantic Ocean on Tuesday morning, becoming the tenth named storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season.

As of 11:00 AM AST, Jerry was located approximately 1,315 miles east-southeast of the northern Leeward Islands with maximum sustained winds of 45 mph. The storm is moving westward at 24 mph but is expected to decrease in forward speed and turn west-northwest over the next couple of days.

“On the forecast track, the core of the system is expected to be near or to the north of the northern Leeward Islands late Thursday and Friday,” according to Forecaster Cangialosi at the National Hurricane Center.

The center predicts steady strengthening, with Jerry expected to reach hurricane status within one to two days. Tropical-storm-force winds currently extend outward up to 140 miles from the storm’s center.

While no coastal watches or warnings are currently in effect, the National Hurricane Center advised that interests in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor Jerry’s progress closely, as Tropical Storm Watches could be required later Tuesday or tonight.

Swells generated by Jerry are expected to reach the Leeward Islands on Thursday and are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Residents are urged to consult products from their local weather office.