Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro is accusing the United States of intensifying military operations in the Caribbean to secure influence over the region’s vast oil resources.

The allegation comes amid a surge in US airstrikes and troop deployments over the last three months, operations that reportedly resulted in 80 civilian deaths.

US officials reject Maduro’s claim, maintaining that the campaign is aimed at dismantling drug trafficking networks. However, a detailed report by The Guardian suggests that critics find this explanation unconvincing.

They point out that most narcotics entering the US come through Mexico, not the Caribbean, making airstrikes on “small boats” unlikely to significantly disrupt drug flows. This has led some to suspect that other strategic motives are driving the expanded military presence.

While Maduro frames the tensions as an oil-power struggle, analysts quoted in the article say the reality is far more nuanced. Francisco J. Monaldi of Rice University notes that although Venezuela holds the world’s largest proven oil reserves, it now produces less than 1% of global oil due to years of economic decline, sanctions and severe mismanagement.

The article highlights that production collapsed during Donald Trump’s first term, when the US banned imports of Venezuelan crude. Infrastructure deteriorated further, and investment dried up.

Although President Joe Biden later eased sanctions to encourage democratic reforms, Trump reinstated the restrictions following Maduro’s disputed election victory, renewing speculation that regime change may be the true goal.

Some analysts believe Washington’s long-standing opposition to Maduro and his alliances with Russia, China and Iran may better explain the US posture. But even if a political transition were to occur, experts warn that restoring Venezuela’s oil industry would require major capital and long-term stability.