Regional pollster and political analyst Peter Wickham believes Barbados Prime Minister Mia Mottley is well-positioned to retain office following her announcement of a snap general election, though he says voter apathy could be the defining challenge.

Mottley announced on Saturday night that the general election will take place on February 11. This marks the second time she has called a snap election within at least a year left in her five-year term.

Speaking to Antigua.news, Tuesday morning Wickham said, while the election was called a year early, it was not entirely unexpected.

“To some extent, it was not unexpected. We’ve been speculating for some time that she would call an election in the first quarter of the year,” Wickham explained. “Several things on the ground suggested that she was looking in that direction.”

He noted that while the timing may raise questions, the prevailing expectation in Barbados is that Mottley will secure another term.

“Really, the expectation is that she will return to office,” Wickham said. “There isn’t a strong feeling that she can lose.”

However, he cautioned that the true issue for the governing Barbados Labour Party may not be victory itself, but voter participation.

“The key concern is turnout,” Wickham said, pointing to historically low voter engagement in the last general election. “The regard for the opposition is not high, but there is significant apathy and disinterest in participating in elections. Motivating people to come out and vote will be her main challenge.”

On the question of why the Prime Minister opted for an early poll, Wickham suggested the decision was driven by perceived political advantage.

“She called the election because she sees an advantage in calling it now,” he said, drawing parallels with St. Lucia’s Prime Minister Philip J. Pierre, who also went to the polls a year early. “The logic is simple: he believed he was ready and his opponent was not.”

Wickham believes a similar calculation is at play in Barbados, where the opposition has struggled to gain momentum.

“My sense is that Prime Minister Mottley has intelligence suggesting she can win now,” he said. “The opposition is not seen as doing well. It’s being led by someone who defected from her party, and there have been challenges with party cohesion.”

According to Wickham, the snap election may be an effort to capitalise on those weaknesses and secure another mandate before conditions change.

“Overall, the expectation is that she will triumph,” he said. “The real question is the size of the majority she’s likely to achieve.”

Prime Minister Mottley’s decision to call early elections has sparked regional attention, with analysts closely watching whether Barbados voters will turn out in significant numbers to shape the outcome.