Climatologist Dale Destin says early indicators point to an above-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, driven primarily by warm Atlantic waters, but tempered by the possible development of El Niño.

According to Destin’s outlook from 268Weather, the season could produce around 16 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes, with overall activity slightly above long-term averages.

He explains that warmer-than-average Atlantic sea surface temperatures are the main fuel for storm formation and intensification. However, this is being offset by the likelihood of a moderate to strong El Niño, which typically increases wind shear and suppresses storm development.

Met Office Director, Dale Destin

Destin notes that this “tug-of-war” between favorable ocean conditions and unfavorable atmospheric conditions is creating uncertainty, especially during the spring predictability barrier, when climate models struggle to accurately project El Niño or La Niña trends.

Despite the uncertainty, there is a 59% chance of an above-normal season, with most activity expected during the peak months of August to October, when roughly 90% or more of storms typically form.

Importantly, Destin stresses that an active season does not guarantee direct impacts for any specific location.

“It only takes one storm to make it a bad season locally,” the forecast emphasizes.

He urges residents across the Caribbean to prepare early, stay informed, and focus on potential impacts—not just storm numbers.

Updated forecasts are expected monthly, with the next revision due in mid-May, which should provide greater clarity as climate signals become more defined.