IMF Says Antigua and Barbuda’s Economy Continues to Expand Despite Debt Risks

Antigua and Barbuda’s economy continued to grow in 2025, with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) reporting stronger construction activity, moderating inflation and a reduction in public debt levels, even as concerns remain over arrears and financing pressures.

In its latest Article IV consultation released this week, the IMF said real GDP growth for Antigua and Barbuda was estimated at 3 percent in 2025, supported largely by a pick-up in construction despite a slowdown in tourism activity. The report also noted that employment levels have gradually recovered to where they stood before the COVID-19 pandemic.

Inflation, which averaged more than 6 percent in 2024, eased significantly to 1.4 percent in 2025, according to the IMF assessment.

The IMF said Antigua and Barbuda’s public debt declined from 101 percent of GDP in 2020 to an estimated 68 percent in 2025, helped by an improved fiscal position and stronger revenues, including inflows from the Citizenship by Investment Programme (CIP).

However, the Washington-based institution warned that major challenges remain, including significant arrears owed to Paris Club creditors and domestic suppliers, as well as elevated financing needs that continue to affect debt sustainability.

The IMF’s Executive Directors urged the government to implement a “credible and comprehensive strategy” to address arrears, strengthen debt and cash management, and create room for climate resilience and infrastructure investments.

The report also praised improvements in tax collection and fiscal discipline, noting that the country’s primary balance was estimated at nearly 5 percent of GDP in 2025.

At the same time, the IMF encouraged authorities to broaden the tax base, curb exemptions and continue improving transparency and oversight of public finances and state enterprises.

The financial system was described as stable and liquid, while directors also encouraged reforms aimed at strengthening tourism competitiveness, trade connectivity and workforce skills.

The IMF projects steady economic expansion to continue over the coming years, although it warned that global uncertainty, commodity price volatility and external shocks remain key risks for Antigua and Barbuda’s small open economy.