Rising Fuel Costs and Global Tensions Force Government to Scale Back Growth Expectations

The Antigua and Barbuda Government has revised its economic growth forecast for 2026, citing mounting international pressures that are driving up fuel and food prices and creating uncertainty across global markets.

Prime Minister and Finance Minister Gaston Browne says the country is no longer expected to achieve the six percent growth in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) that was projected earlier this year. Instead, the government now anticipates economic growth of approximately four percent.

According to Browne, who was at the time speaking with State Media, the revision is largely the result of geopolitical developments beyond the country’s control, particularly tensions in the Middle East that have disrupted global energy markets.

“We were bullish initially. We were anticipating economic growth of about six percent. However, I don’t believe that we would achieve that now and we are now down to about four percent,” Browne explained.

Despite the downward adjustment, the Prime Minister stressed that a four percent growth rate remains strong by regional standards and is expected to outperform several other Caribbean economies.

“This will still be considered very strong when compared with other territories in the region where lower rates of growth are expected,” he said. “Unfortunately, the geopolitical circumstances are such that factors beyond our control will depress our rate of growth.”

One of the key concerns is the ongoing instability surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic shipping route through which a significant portion of the world’s oil supply passes.

The tensions have contributed to rising fuel prices internationally, increasing costs for countries such as Antigua and Barbuda that depend heavily on imported energy.

The situation has also affected food prices. Much of the world’s fertilizer supply moves through the same corridor, and disruptions have pushed agricultural production costs higher, resulting in increased food prices globally.

While acknowledging the challenges, Browne remains optimistic that international conflicts will ease in the coming months, allowing global markets to stabilize and economic activity to strengthen.

“We are hoping that these issues are resolved so that by the fourth quarter we will see an increase, or an uptick, in economic activities so that when we go into 2027 we would have a strong year,” he said.

The Prime Minister noted that although the revised forecast falls short of earlier expectations, the economy is still projected to expand.

“That certainly is good growth for the Antigua and Barbuda economy in the context of the growth that is forecast for the other Caribbean states,” Browne added.