By Aabigayle McIntosh

An economics expert is analyzing the potential fallout from U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs on China, Mexico, and Canada, which he has vowed to impose on day one of his presidency.

These actions could have significant indirect effects on Antigua and Barbuda and the wider Caribbean.

Professor C. Justin Robinson, Principal of the University of the West Indies Five Islands Campus (UWIFIC), warns that the implications for Antigua are unlikely to be favorable.

“According to U.S. Census Bureau data, Canada, Mexico, and China are the U.S.’s most important trading partners, with approximately $1.3 trillion worth of goods exchanged annually. These tariffs could lead to increased prices for imported goods in Antigua,” Robinson explained during a State TV interview.

Antigua and Barbuda import a variety of goods indirectly linked to supply chains involving the three nations.

The tariffs could raise costs for U.S. imports that use inputs from China, Mexico, and Canada, such as electronics, machinery, and consumer goods.

“For instance, electronics like laptops or smartphones assembled in China and then exported to the U.S. before reaching the Caribbean could see significant price hikes. A $1,000 smartphone could increase by at least $250 if the tariffs are fully passed on to consumers,” Robinson noted.

The impact may not stop at rising import prices. Robinson highlighted that higher tariffs could reduce the disposable income of American consumers, potentially affecting their spending on travel and leisure.

“If American consumers face reduced disposable income, it could result in slower economic growth in major trading partners like the U.S., which would dampen global demand for services, including those in the Caribbean,” he said.

Robinson also pointed to the possibility of retaliatory tariffs from China, Mexico, and Canada on U.S. goods, which could hurt U.S. manufacturers and further disrupt global trade dynamics.