As the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season officially commences today, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) has provided a reassuring update, stating that “the tropics look like they’ll stay relatively quiet for at least the next 7 days.”

This initial quiet period is welcomed news, especially as NOAA National Weather Service forecasters at the Climate Prediction Center anticipate above-normal hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin between June 1 and November 30.

NOAA’s outlook for the season indicates an 85% chance of an above-normal season, with a 10% chance of a near-normal season and a 5% chance of a below-normal season.

The agency is forecasting a range of 17 to 25 total named storms with winds of 39 mph or higher.

Of these, 8 to 13 are expected to become hurricanes with winds of 74 mph or higher, including 4 to 7 major hurricanes classified as category 3, 4, or 5, with winds of 111 mph or higher. Forecasters have expressed a 70% confidence in these ranges.

The names designated for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season include Alberto, Beryl, Chris, Debby, Ernesto, Francine, Gordon, Helene, Isaac, Joyce, Kirk, Leslie, Milton, Nadine, Oscar, Patty, Rafael, Sara, Tony, Valerie, and William.