by Mick the Ram

The 19th November 2024, marks 1000 days since the Russian Federation launched their illegal and full-scale invasion of neighbouring Ukraine.

The human and economic toll on both sides continues to climb, but it is civilians who have borne the brunt of the war, with hundreds of thousands killed, injured or made homeless, and it continues to rise all the time.

However, the imminent arrival of thousands of North Korean troops to fight alongside the Russians has finally prompted a determinative move from the United States.

President Joe Biden has given the all-clear for Ukraine to use their long-range missiles to strike targets inside Russia territory, after months of pleas for restriction for such action to be lifted from the country’s leader, Volodymyr Zelensky.

These ATACM missiles can reach up to 300km (186 miles) and are tough to intercept due to their incredibly high speed.

The UK and France may now follow the US lead and permit their own Storm Shadow missiles to be used as well, after they too were under the same restrictions that now appear to be off the table.

Senior Russian senator Vladimir Dzhabarov called it “an unprecedented step towards World War III”, with accusations coming out of Moscow that the Biden administration are intent on adding “oil to the fire” and provoke further escalation of tension around the conflict.

Deadliest European conflict since second World War

It was back on 24 February 2022 when the world awoke to the news that Russian tanks – which had been building in numbers on the Ukrainian border – had carried out what President Vladimir Putin had continued to deny would happen, and illegally rolled into the neighbours land as part of a full-scale invasion.

Now as the third year of the conflict approaches, the 1000th day has ticked over, and the fighting has become Europe’s deadliest since World War II.

The true toll of casualties is likely to be much, much higher than any official figures given out so far due to limited access to areas under Russian control.

Gains and losses on both sides

The front line has certainly shifted, albeit slowly, as Russian forces captured swathes of Ukrainian territory, including regions in the east and south, with cities such as Mariupol left devastated and largely uninhabitable.

The Ukrainians for their part have launched counteroffensives and successfully reclaimed some of those areas, as well as carrying out a cross-border operation the other way into Russia’s Kursk region, amid widespread destruction.

Huge losses both physically and economically

Ukraine as a country has suffered immeasurably, with its economy severely weakened as defence continues to consume its GDP and its much smaller population leaves it constantly vulnerable to manpower shortages.

For Russia, the war’s economic impact includes international sanctions, reduced exports, and their own ever mounting military costs.

Estimates of military losses remain state secrets, but Western intelligence believes Russia has suffered far higher casualties, at times losing over 1,000 soldiers a day in intense bloody battles.

North Korean involvement triggers major US response

Now in his latest move, Putin is poised to involve a dangerous ally in the war, as more than 10,000 North Korean troops are set to join his soldiers in battle.

This seems to have been the trigger for the US to finally agree to lifting restrictions on its long-range missiles, a move which has clearly surprised the Russians, who seemingly felt confident such a move was not likely, certainly not as quickly as it has occurred.

Ukraine has been asking for months for permission to use ATACMS (Army Tactical Missile System) inside Russia and it undoubtedly is one of the most potent weapons yet provided to assist their cause, with its capabilities of firing missiles up to 300km (186 miles).

Decisive action

A former commander of US troops in Europe – retired US Lt Gen Ben Hodges – says it is about time, but hopes the decision by President Biden hasn’t come too late: “The war could have ended last year, if we had been actually serious about helping Ukraine win,” he boldly claimed.

Continuing, he sounded a more positive note when he observed: “This is how you defeat the Russian advantage of mass, by taking out their artillery headquarters and logistics.”

Many twists still to come

Many commentators are now predicting that the UK and France will follow suit and give the green light to Ukraine to use their long-range Storm Shadow cruise missiles which could effectively allow Kyiv to strike well inside Russian territory with the capability to hit targets up to 250km (155 miles) away.

They are launched from aircraft and then fly at close to the speed of sound, hugging the terrain, before dropping down and detonating a high explosive warhead.

Such a move could put the Russians on the back foot, as the conflict rolls on, and of course there is the Donald Trump factor still to come!