Donald Trump has made the decision to pause all aid for Ukraine with immediate effect (The Jakarta Post)

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by Mick the Ram

Following on from the very public heated argument between Donald Trump and Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky at the White House last week, the US President has made a controversial decision to pause all US aid to the beleaguered European country.

With the Ukrainian leader refusing to apologise or express regret for the events in the Oval Office –  which did to the watching audience of hundreds of millions appear to be US orchestrated – Mr Trump has effectively taken his ball home believing Mr Zelensky should be more appreciative of the assistance he has already received from the States.

His decision to suspend aid may seem petulant – and Mr Trump has demonstrated on many occasions that he does not like anyone standing up to him – but there will also be a political aim attached, as they try to force Ukraine to the negotiating table sooner.

The presidential order takes effect immediately and as a consequence, includes all US military equipment not currently in Ukraine, including weapons in transit and at depots in Poland.

Military support from America has been of massive importance in the three-year battle against the invading Russians, not just in fire power, but also in space-based surveillance, intelligence gathering and vital communication links.

It may be months before the effects of cutting off US aid are felt, at least in terms of ammunition and hardware, so Mr Zelensky will be encouraged by a statement from European Commission President Ursula Von der Leyen who has said “Europe is ready to step up” with a potential 800bn euros in defence expenditure, for what she is calling a “safe and resilient Europe”.

Bitter blow

The decision taken by Mr Trump is not just a bitter blow for Ukraine, but also for its European allies who have been lobbying the US administration to continue its vital support, particularly the sophisticated air defence systems that have protected the Ukrainian people from even more serious bloodshed.

The withdrawal of crucial weapons aid may take time to filter all the way down to the frontline, but it is the impact of losing the intelligence sharing capabilities, that could severely damage the country in the immediate future.

Loss of communication

These communications are not only provided by the US military, but they also owe a debt of gratitude to commercial companies too, and that includes Elon Musk’s Starlink satellite network, which major Ukrainian positions on the frontline have relied upon for much of the conflict for their ability to co-ordinate artillery and drone strikes.

Given Mr Musk’s emergence as a key figure in the new US administration, it seems highly unlikely that he will now be willing to continue to fund the operation.

Patience pushed beyond limit

It would seem that Mr Zelensky’s prediction that the end of war in Ukraine was “very, very far away” was the straw that broke the camel’s back as far as Mr Trump was concerned.

He was said to have been infuriated by the remark, saying at the time: “This is the worst statement that could have been made and America will not put up with it for much longer”.

​Zelensky “did” show respect

The Ukrainian leader has said he will sign the minerals deal that was to have taken place before the two presidents had their falling out last week, and made the point that he had travelled for hours to get to the White House and had done so as a mark of respect for the US.

He also insisted that he would never “insult anybody” and choosing his words very carefully, he suggested that tensions would pass.

Aggressor in conflict questioned

Michael Carpenter, who was a former director of the US National Security Council under President Joe Biden reacted to the suspension by saying: “Russia is the aggressor and Ukraine is the victim and we are acting as if it were the reverse.”

He further commented that by pausing defensive assistance which is allowing Ukrainians to defend their homeland from a “blatant and brazen ugly brutal attack” from Russia, it is “astonishing that the United States would be doing this.”

Leverage not being utilized

Steven Pifer, who was US Ambassador to Ukraine under Bill Clinton’s leadership, called the decision “very wrong-headed” as at some point it will have “a real effect on the battlefield”.

He questioned why Mr Trump was not using what he referred to as the “tons of leverage on Russia”, stating that the president could tighten sanctions on the Russian economy, or could work with the G7 to seize $300bn in Russian Central Bank assets and make that money available to Ukraine.

His assessment concluded that the US were seemingly now “pushing and coming down hard on the wrong party”.

Europe to respond

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, responded to the news by exclaiming: “We are in an era of rearmament”. She confirmed that she is about to lay out three specific proposals before a summit with leaders later this week.

These being:

1. Permission being granted to countries to increase defence spending without triggering EU mechanisms against budget deficits.
2. Defence investment to the tune of €150bn in loans which could benefit the defence of the EU as a whole and which would help pool demand, and as a joint procurement, it will reduce costs.
3. Allowing countries to redirect funds earmarked for cohesion policy programmes to defence spending.

Not the first time

This is not the first time that the US has withheld military aid during this war. Republicans in Congress blocked then-President Joe Biden’s largest percentage of military assistance for Kyiv in the summer of 2023.

On that occasion Ukraine managed (just) to stretch out its resources with European assistance. Congress finally approved the £60bn aid package in the spring of the following year and it came just in time as Russia were mounting a renewed offensive in Kharkiv and seemed set to overpower the Ukrainians, until the arrival of the delayed US weapons helped repel them again.

Stockpile will only last so long

Ukrainian MP Fedir Venislavsky has confidently stated that his country has a weapons stockpile that would last at least another six months.

Nevertheless, with President Trump seemingly “hanging Ukraine out to dry” as one advocacy group put it, and effectively giving Putin the “green light” to press on further west, help is going to be needed, very soon… and a lot of it!