Antigua and Barbuda Records 12 Heatwaves in 2026 as Hotter and Drier Conditions Loom

Antigua and Barbuda is experiencing a significant increase in extreme heat, with the country recording 12 heatwaves in the first ten months of 2026, nearly double the seven recorded throughout last year, as concerns grow over worsening drought conditions and the possibility of even hotter weather in 2027.

Climatologist Orvin Paige of the Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Service has warned that the rising frequency of heatwaves reflects increasingly intense temperatures affecting not only the twin-island nation but the wider Caribbean region.

The longest heatwave recorded locally this year lasted nine consecutive days, while temperatures have frequently climbed to between 34 and 35 degrees Celsius during the period from May to October.

“So you can appreciate that in 2026, we’ve seen an increase in the number of heatwave episodes,” Paige told Observer.

“It only speaks to the fact that we are experiencing some pretty hot temperatures across Antigua, Barbuda, and the Caribbean region.”

According to Paige, a heatwave is officially recorded when both daytime and nighttime temperatures fall within the highest 10 per cent of temperatures observed during the 1991–2020 reference period for at least two consecutive days.

He explained that while extremely high daytime temperatures present significant challenges, persistently warm nights are particularly concerning because they limit the body's ability to recover from prolonged heat exposure.

“Whereas under normal circumstances without a heatwave, your night-time temperature falls considerably enough for the body to recover from the prolonged exposure during the daytime to high temperatures,” Paige explained.

“During heatwave episodes, the night-time temperatures remain elevated, and it sort of creates enormous pressure on the body to recover.”

The prolonged exposure to elevated temperatures raises concerns about heat-related illnesses, particularly among vulnerable populations, including elderly people, young children and individuals with underlying medical conditions.

Although Paige anticipates that the frequency of heatwave episodes will begin declining towards the end of October, he cautioned that unusually high temperatures could persist into November.

Beyond the intense heat, Antigua and Barbuda continues to grapple with drought conditions despite experiencing occasional heavy rainfall during the traditional June-to-November rainy season.

Paige noted that individual showers have produced rainfall amounts ranging from half an inch to an inch, but these isolated downpours have not been sufficient to reverse the country's prolonged dry conditions.

The outlook for the coming months remains concerning, with forecasts pointing to a strengthening El Niño weather pattern that could further intensify heat and reduce rainfall across the region.

“The long-term forecast is for El Niño to become even stronger, peaking around December when it is usually at its maximum and the conditions likely to spill over into 2027, meaning we will see more hot conditions and more dry conditions,” Paige warned.

El Niño is a naturally occurring climate phenomenon characterised by unusually warm ocean temperatures in the eastern Pacific Ocean, which can influence atmospheric conditions and rainfall patterns across the globe.

In the Caribbean, the phenomenon is frequently associated with elevated temperatures and reduced rainfall, potentially worsening existing drought conditions.

With 12 heatwaves already recorded this year and the possibility of hotter, drier weather extending into 2027, Paige's assessment highlights the growing challenges posed by prolonged extreme heat and changing weather patterns in Antigua and Barbuda.