OAS warns El Niño in 2027 Could Bring Severe Drought to the Insular Caribbean

The General Secretariat of the Organization of American States (OAS) has urged member states to strengthen prevention and preparedness before the end of 2026, warning that a “very strong” El Niño in 2027 could cut rainfall by up to 80% in parts of Latin America and the Caribbean while triggering floods and landslides elsewhere in the hemisphere.

The warning is contained in a technical brief titled “El Niño 2026–2027: Outlook, Potential Impacts, and Anticipatory Action,” released Monday. It was prepared by the OAS Department of Sustainable Development in collaboration with the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the International Research Center on El Niño (CIIFEN). The report says the phenomenon will have cross-cutting effects on water, energy and food security, as well as public health.

The insular Caribbean is among the areas projected to face severe rainfall deficits and intense drought, alongside the Central American Dry Corridor, the Andean and Caribbean regions of Colombia, Venezuela and the Amazon Basin. In contrast, coastal Ecuador, northern Peru, central-southern Chile and the La Plata Basin, which spans Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay, are expected to see surplus precipitation and a high risk of flooding and landslides.

For island states, the brief points to a specific danger. Acute rainfall deficits in the insular Caribbean and coastal regions are projected to cause marine intrusion into aquifers, contaminating freshwater supplies and forcing urban rationing. Drought would also compromise overall water supply and hydroelectric generation in a region where more than 200 million people lack continuous water service and roughly 50% of the electricity matrix relies on hydropower.

The consequences reach beyond water and power. In the Central American Dry Corridor, the report projects that between 500,000 and 750,000 people could be pushed into Phase 3, or Acute Crisis, of the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification. Falling levels in Lakes Gatún and Alhajuela are expected to limit the operating draught of Neopanamax vessels in the Panama Canal to 14 meters, or 44 feet, with implications for global trade.

On public health, the brief warns that high temperatures combined with unprotected household water storage during rationing could accelerate the spread of the Aedes aegypti mosquito, the vector for dengue. Dry conditions will also raise the risk of wildfires.

Andrés Sánchez, Head of the Water Section at the OAS, said the outcome is not inevitable. “El Niño cannot be avoided, but a large part of its consequences can,” he warned. “In addition to drawing attention to the very strong impact that the scientific community warns El Niño will have in 2027, this document seeks to call on countries to prepare in order to minimize those consequences, providing them with a guiding framework on how to do so.”

The roadmap calls on governments to strengthen early warning systems, plan alternative electricity supply sources, mobilize contingent funds, distribute drought-resistant seeds, and reinforce health surveillance and vector control. For island and hyper-arid territories, it recommends prioritizing backup desalination technology, reducing technical water losses in distribution networks, inspecting alternative groundwater sources, and monitoring aquifer recharge. The document stresses that adopting these measures during the fourth quarter of 2026 will reduce the human and economic costs of an emergency in 2027.

The report draws on data from the WMO, the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the International Research Institute for Climate and Society, CIIFEN, the Pan American Health Organization, the International Labour Organization, the Famine Early Warning Systems Network and national meteorological and hydrological services.