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By Kieron Murdoch | Opinion Contributor
Political fortunes are fragile. In March, many saw MP Richard Lewis as the most sensible choice to lead a then resurgent opposition United Progressive Party (UPP) into the coming years and possibly into a future election.
Fast forward past Lewis’ loss to MP Jamale Pringle at the party convention in April, and further past the tumult unleashed by now independent MP Anthony Smith’s resignation from the party, and the question becomes whether Lewis will ever be in line for leadership again.
He appeared on stage at a recent UPP “grand political rally” in All Saints West and delivered a policy and unity focused speech to a sparsely packed crowd. It was a clear effort by the party to demonstrate unity in the face of infighting, resignations, leaks, and rumours which have damaged it since its last convention and since Smith’s departure.
In September, then UPP St. John’s Rural East Caretaker Sean Bird, before his resignation, admitted publicly that the party was split between those who preferred a Lewis leadership and those firmly behind the current Party Leader and Leader of the Opposition, Pringle. Nevertheless, there was Lewis himself on stage.
The St. John’s Rural West MP has said little of his intentions. In fact, his media profile has been minimal this year, both before and after the convention, and also after Smith’s resignation. It can be difficult to make out the intentions of someone who appears to be less swiftly drawn in by the allure of a microphone than some of his contemporaries on either side of the aisle.
If he still aspires to be Leader of the UPP, then he might have adopted an anti-Massiah strategy, so to speak. This means doing all that is in your power to appease a potentially hostile leadership that may perceive you as a threat and may wish to see the back of you, while biding your time, and ultimately waiting for the moment of your ascendancy.
Conciliation and appeasement at all costs. Had then MP Joanne Maureen Massiah pursued such a policy in the aftermath of the 2015 UPP leadership race against Harold Lovell from which she withdrew after citing unfairness and manipulation in the process, she would have been poised to become UPP Leader after the March 2018 election and could have taken the party in any direction she saw fit.
After all, her then seat, Saints East and St. Luke (ASESL), was and still is a valuable asset. Was it not this very seat and the relative strength of party support there that positioned Pringle to become Opposition Leader after the election, and Deputy Party Leader thereafter? When Lovel led the party to a catastrophic defeat in 2018, she could easily have knifed him in his gut, so to speak, and ascended to the Leadership virtually unchallenged.
After the 2015 UPP Convention however, the fallout between Massiah and the UPP under Lovell spiralled. At some stage the party took disciplinary action against her, alleging that she had put herself at odds with the organisation and was undermining it. In turn, she alleged numerous moves to marginalise and remove her from the party by a leadership that saw her as a threat.
By February 2017, Massiah was formally expelled from the UPP, becoming an independent MP for ASESL until losing the seat in the March 2018 elections. Of the many run-ins between the party and Massiah before then, one of the more memorable was the public spat that erupted in January 2016 on Budget Day when all but one of the three opposition legislators boycotted the presentation.
Massiah showed up for the debate. Lovell publicly used the word “traitor” in response. Massiah later declared on Observer Radio, “When I heard my brother, Harold Lovell, call me a traitor, it was a pain worse than childbirth.” This was no doubt one the best sound bites of 2016.
Massiah and her team formed the Democratic National Alliance (DNA) in 2017. She maintains that the DNA is fundamentally at variance with the policies and culture of both the Antigua Barbuda Labour Party (ABLP) and the UPP and has said many times that she would not consider being a part of either organisation, even if that means being in the political wilderness.
If Lewis does not want to be another uncrowned heir apparent turned pretender, he will have to remain in the UPP biding his time quietly, waiting for the moment his rival’s consummate failure, to knife him in the gut and ascend to the seat that every politician covets. That is unless he intends to join the Labour Party and oust Gaston Browne and whoever else is lining up to take that job, which is unlikely.
It is more likely that any leadership opportunity would come from remaining in the UPP. But it would require him to be so unquestioningly aligned with the current leadership that no opportunity is granted to them to accuse him of undermining the party.
It would require him to remain silent even when what he may perceive to be missteps are being made to the detriment of the party. It may even require that he refrain from challenging the leader at any convention prior to the next election.
The opportune moment to reveal the dagger will most likely present itself in the aftermath of a general election, if it should so happen that the current Party Leader, Jamale Pringle, does not carry the party into government, or worse, if the party loses ground gained in January 2023.
In fact, one could argue that the opportune moment for Lewis to have secured his ascendancy would have been prior to the January 2023 election, by quietly negotiating a pact with enough of his fellow candidates who were most likely to win their seats, to support him as Prime Minister or Opposition Leader over Pringle if Harold Lovell failed to win his seat.
Claiming the position of the Opposition Leader immediately after the election would have immediately sidelined his rival and kickstarted his campaign for party Leader. It would have been a spectacular political upset and a masterful bit of politicking. Such manoeuvring might have been far too ambitious however and even dangerous.
Still, given the current situation, whether the MP can manage another attempt at leadership will depend on the answers to these critical questions. Does Lewis intend to run again in another election or elections? If he intends to run again, will the fallout from the convention impact his ability to retain his seat?
If he can retain his seat, does he still aspire to hold the party leadership at any time in the future? And if he plans to run again, can win his seat, and still aspires to leadership, will he still stand out among the then cadre of leadership options? And will the UPP be a party worth leading by the time the next opportunity to take the reins presents itself?
About the writer:
Kieron Murdoch worked as a journalist and later as a radio presenter in Antigua and Barbuda for eight years, covering politics and governance especially. He is an opinion contributor at antigua.news. If you have an opinion on the issues raised in this editorial and you would like to submit a response by email to be considered for publication, please email staff@antigua.news
Joanne, my friend, you would doʻ yourself, and the entire country, a major favour of distancing yourself as far as possible from the UPP asps!! You are not of their ilk, class, intellect, standards or level of commitment to nation building. Do not be drawn in by UPP. Hopefully, who only now recognize the magnitude of their loss and are too ashamed to beg you to return. You don’t have to run to the ABLP “church” either even though I honestly believe that as a committed independent person, you can offer that the possibility exists for you to contribute so much more to national development under such an arrangement! I just hate to see invaluable talent go to waste because of ignorant, incompetent enemies of the State. Stop wasting time! Get on board!