Updated 2024 Rainfall Prediction for Antigua: Above Normal Rainfall Expected

Forecasters continue to forecast a wetter-than-normal year for Antigua.

Climatologist Dale Destin shared in his personal blog on 268eather that this year is more likely than not to be among the wettest on record.

He said this year will most likely get around 1519 mm (60.0 in) with a 70 percent confidence of it being in the range of 1294 to 1768 mm (51 to 70 in). It is also likely that the year will be soggily wet or have well-above-normal rainfall, with more than 1534.4 mm (60.41 in).

“The highest probability – 88 percent (up 6), is for above-normal rainfall; hence, the prediction for an expected wetter than normal year. The numbers can also be interpreted as a 99 percent chance of above or near-normal precipitation for 2024. On the other hand, it is virtually certain that the year will NOT be drier than normal; the chance of this is 1 percent (down 3).

“The year could also end up being super wet. There is a 51 percent chance (unchanged) of the year’s rainfall falling in the top 10 percentile of all rainfall for the data period of 1991-2020,” Destin said.

He notes if this forecast pans out, it would be the 13th wettest year in the 97-year record, which dates back to 1928.

If the upper end of the forecast, 1768 mm (70 in), materializes, it would be a record-breaking wet year. The wettest year on record is 1951 with 1764 mm (69.45 in).  

The Climatologist said given the forecast, excessive rainfall could lead to flash flooding in mainly flood-prone areas, especially during the flash flood season of September to November. The potential impacts from flooding range from soil erosion to loss of life.

Explaining more about the west forecast he said like the hurricane season, the primary factors driving 268Weater’s above-normal rainfall forecast are the expectation of persistently warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the tropical North Atlantic (TNA), coupled with anticipated cooler-than-normal SSTs across the eastern Equatorial Pacific Ocean or La Niña.

The simultaneous occurrence of these phenomena, during the latter half of the year or the wet season, sets the stage for what could be near-perfect conditions for a super wet year.

However, there are uncertainties regarding the forecast; these are mainly due to the unknowable intensity and frequency of Saharan Dust that will traverse the TNA. Dust inhibits rainfall activity, but it cannot be forecast beyond days; hence, it is not factored into the year’s rainfall forecast.